Given the debate about the nuclear treaty with Iran, it is strange that no one has actually discussed what would happen if Iran used the bomb. I asked a friend who runs a code to do these calculations, to see what a 10-kiloton bomb would do if dropped on Tel Aviv. This is probably the optimum target because the winds flow from West to East. There are two issues: immediate bomb damage and fallout.

Immediate damage

The immediate dmage is fairly well confined to Tel Aviv.

Fallout

Notice that significant fallout affects Jerusalem, the West Bank, and the Gaza strip, together with most of Jordan. So the question is: would Iran really risk damaging their client states?

To examine this in more detail, download the attached KMZ file and open it with Google Earth, or drag it into Google Earth.